Assessment of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Apriona rugicollis Chevrolat, 1852 (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) Under Climate Change and Human Activities Based on the Biomod2 Ensemble Model

Effective use of species distribution models can assess the risk of spreading forest pests. In this study, based on 434 occurrence records and eight environmental variables, an ensemble model was applied to identify key environmental factors affecting the distribution of Apriona rugicollis Chevrolat, 1852 and predict its potential habitat and its relative areas of change under current and future climatic conditions. The results indicate that humidity, solar radiation, topography, and human activities were the main factors influencing the distribution of A. rugicollis. Under the current climate scenario, suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in East Asia, including North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Myanmar, Vietnam, and China. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitat for A. rugicollis gradually increases, especially in China and Japan, which are at high risk of spreading. In addition, the suitable habitat of A. rugicollis will expand northeastward to higher latitudes. The results of this study provide an important scientific basis for policymakers to formulate strategies for monitoring and controlling A. rugicollis in response to climate change.