Changes in the Distribution Range of the Genus Cardiocrinum in China Under Climate Change and Human Activities

Cardiocrinum are perennial herbaceous plants of the Liliaceae family with high ornamental, nutritional, and medicinal value. However, critical knowledge gaps remain regarding the following: (1) the fine-scale habitat preferences of Cardiocrinum; (2) the key ecological drivers influencing their growth and distribution. The MaxEnt software 3.4.1 was used to simulate the current and future suitable habitats of Cardiocrinum, evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on its distribution, and determine the distribution changes under climate change scenarios. The AUC value of the model used in the current study was >0.98, which indicates that the model had good accuracy. The results show that as a typical understory herb, precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18) and temperature seasonality (bio04) are the main factors affecting the distribution of Cardiocrinum. In addition, Cardiocrinum giganteum and Cardiocrinum giganteum var. yunnanense are also affected by slope and human activity. Under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas of Cardiocrinum cathayanum and C. giganteum showed an increasing trend. The suitable habitat area of C. giganteum var. yunnanense increased under the SSP126 climate scenario; however, it substantially declined in SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The distribution area of Cardiocrinum shifted to higher latitudes. The centroid of C. cathayanum shifted more than 5 degrees of latitude during SSP585 2081s, while the centroid of C. giganteum and C. giganteum var. yunnanense did not shift more than 2 degrees of latitude. In addition, the centroid longitudes of C. giganteum and C. giganteum var. yunnanense shifted westward under the three climate scenarios. There is ecological niche differentiation among C. cathayanum and others, whilst C. giganteum and C. giganteum var. yunnanense have overlapping ecological niches. In the future, we will strengthen the protection of wild Cardiocrinum resources in accordance with environmental factors and suitable habitats for Cardiocrinum.