Global burden and risk factors of MASLD: trends from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2030

Abstract The prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is increasing globally, posing a major public health issue. This study analyzes the global, regional, and national burden of MASLD and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2030. We obtained data on MASLD prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 for 204 countries. Counts and rates per 100,000 population were calculated, and trends to 2030 were predicted using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model. In 2021, there were 1,267.9 million MASLD cases globally, with 138.3 thousand deaths and 3667.3 thousand DALYs. The global age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALY rates were 15,018.1, 1.6, and 42.4 per 100,000 population, increasing by 24.3%, 5.5%, and 5.5% since 1990. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest prevalence, while Andean and Central Latin America had the highest death and DALY rates. Men aged 15–69 and 90–94 had higher DALY rates, while women aged 70–89 and 95+ had higher rates. A reversed V-shaped association was found between the sociodemographic index and DALY rate. High fasting plasma glucose (5.9%) and smoking (2.4%) were major risk factors. Public health efforts should prioritize early detection and management of MASLD in younger populations and develop targeted strategies for older adults, especially women, to reduce the disease burden. Effective policies to address high fasting plasma glucose and smoking can mitigate MASLD’s impact.