Towards carbon neutrality: How much do forest carbon sinks cost in China?

With the implementation of carbon neutrality strategies in China, both carbon emissions reduction and carbon sequestration should be considered. In order to exert the carbon neutrality potential of forest carbon sinks, it is necessary to calculate the cost of them in China. Based on the basic principles of land use opportunity cost and net present value from previous research, this paper constructs a forest carbon sink cost estimation model based on the afforestation cost method. Empirical analysis of the carbon sequestration cost is explored at the city level in China. According to the results, the regional distribution of carbon sink costs varies greatly. On the whole, Southwest China is suitable for afforestation to create carbon sinks since its cost is relatively low. It can obtain carbon benefits from forest carbon sinks projects, while there are higher carbon sink costs in the eastern coastal areas. Furthermore, it dynamically analyzes the impact of the rotation period, timber price, discount rate and afforestation cost on the cost of carbon sinks. The rotation period and afforestation cost have more sensitivity for the forest carbon sink cost. Therefore, it should implement different low-carbon policies in different regions, and encourage forest management to create carbon sinks in areas rich in forest resources. In addition, an inter-regional carbon sink trading mechanism can play the economic value of forest carbon sinks effectively and achieve win-win cooperation between regions.