Tillage exacerbates the vulnerability of cereal crops to drought

Soils used for crop production cover 15.5 million km2 and almost all have been tilled at some point in their history. However, it is unclear how the changes in soil depth and soil properties associated with tillage affect crop yields. Here we show that tillage on slopes thins soils and reduces wheat and maize yields. At the landscape scale, tillage erosion gradually reduces crop yields as the duration and intensity of tillage increase. Over the next 50–100 yr, the overall yields are likely to further decline as modern mechanized agriculture accelerates the process of tillage erosion compared with centuries of non-mechanized tillage. Arresting this downward trend will require more widespread adoption of no-tillage practices and avoidance of down-slope cultivation. The downward pressure on landscape-scale yields due to tillage erosion is expected to be amplified by climate-change-induced increases in dry spells during crop growth. Using soil redistribution and crop growth models, this study shows that as the duration and intensity of tillage increases, wheat and maize yields decrease. Under projected future climate conditions, the impact of crop yields from tillage erosion will be amplified due to reduced water availability.