Predicting hematoma expansion in acute spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: integrating clinical factors with a multitask deep learning model for non-contrast head CT

Abstract Purpose To predict hematoma growth in intracerebral hemorrhage patients by combining clinical findings with non-contrast CT imaging features analyzed through deep learning. Methods Three models were developed to predict hematoma expansion (HE) in 572 patients. We utilized multi-task learning for both hematoma segmentation and prediction of expansion: the Image-to-HE model processed hematoma slices, extracting features and computing a normalized DL score for HE prediction. The Clinical-to-HE model utilized multivariate logistic regression on clinical variables. The Integrated-to-HE model combined image-derived and clinical data. Significant clinical variables were selected using forward selection in logistic regression. The two models incorporating clinical variables were statistically validated. Results For hematoma detection, the diagnostic performance of the developed multi-task model was excellent (AUC, 0.99). For expansion prediction, three models were evaluated for predicting HE. The Image-to-HE model achieved an accuracy of 67.3%, sensitivity of 81.0%, specificity of 64.0%, and an AUC of 0.76. The Clinical-to-HE model registered an accuracy of 74.8%, sensitivity of 81.0%, specificity of 73.3%, and an AUC of 0.81. The Integrated-to-HE model, merging both image and clinical data, excelled with an accuracy of 81.3%, sensitivity of 76.2%, specificity of 82.6%, and an AUC of 0.83. The Integrated-to-HE model, aligning closest to the diagonal line and indicating the highest level of calibration, showcases superior performance in predicting HE outcomes among the three models. Conclusion The integration of clinical findings with non-contrast CT imaging features analyzed through deep learning showed the potential for improving the prediction of HE in acute spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients.