乌克兰语
脆弱性(计算)
背景(考古学)
可计算一般均衡
地缘政治学
消费(社会学)
温室气体
欧洲联盟
国际经济学
国际贸易
经济
经济
宏观经济学
政治学
政治
计算机科学
计算机安全
地理
法学
生物
社会学
社会科学
生态学
考古
语言学
哲学
作者
Lianbiao Cui,Suyun Yue,Xuan-Hoa Nghiem,Manli Duan
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103373
摘要
The Russo-Ukrainian war intensified the risk of global energy supply chain disruption, causing not only sharp fluctuations in energy prices in a short period of time but also disruptions to the global energy supply and economic and trade orders, with profound effects on global political and economic patterns in the long term. To explore the macroeconomic impact of the energy interruption caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war, a global multi-regional, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model was used for the empirical analysis. The results show that trade interruption alone would significantly impact the Ukrainian economy, causing its real GDP to fall by 4.18%. However, if the United States (US) and the Europe Union (EU) stop importing energy from Russia, the latter's economy will suffer a devastating blow, with a maximum decline in its real GDP reaching 5.49%. Developed countries are likely to incur heavy economic costs owing to their energy sanctions imposed against Russia. However, these costs are mainly borne by European nations, whereas the US suffers limited economic losses. Moreover, the Russo-Ukrainian war has limited impacts on global carbon abatement. In the strictest scenario, global energy consumption and carbon emissions will decrease by 0.600% and 0.915%, respectively. Exploring the boundary effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war on economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions is useful for understanding the complex relationship between geopolitical conflicts, natural resource utilization, and carbon emissions.
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