作者
Maria T Sanchez‐Santos,Esther Williamson,P.J. Nicolson,Julie Bruce,Gary S. Collins,Christian Mallen,Frances Griffiths,Angela Garret,Alana Morris,Mandy Slark,Sarah E Lamb,Oliver Conway,Francis Darton,Susan Dutton,Angela Garrett,Daryl Hagan,Damian Haywood,Aimi Hewitt,Sarah E Lamb,Ioana R Marian,Alana Morris,Laura Nevay,P.J. Nicolson,Maria T Sanchez‐Santos,Julie Bruce,Mandy Slark,Karan Vadher,Lesley Ward,Marion Watson,Esther Williamson,N K Arden,Karen Barker,Gary S. Collins,Jeremy Fairbank,Judith Fitch,David P. French,Frances Griffiths,Zara Hanson,Charles E. Hutchinson,Christian Mallen,Petrou Stavros
摘要
The aim of this study is to develop and validate two models to predict 2-year risk of self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults.We used data from a prospective cohort study of people aged 65 years and over in England. Mobility status was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L mobility question. The models were based on the outcome: Model 1, any mobility decline at 2 years; Model 2, new onset of persistent mobility problems over 2 years. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression was used to select predictors. Model performance was assessed using C-statistics, calibration plot, Brier scores, and decision curve analyses. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping.Over 18% of participants who could walk reported mobility decline at year 2 (Model 1), and 7.1% with no mobility problems at baseline, reported new onset of mobility problems after 2 years (Model 2). Thirteen and 6 out of 31 variables were selected as predictors in Models 1 and 2, respectively. Models 1 and 2 had a C-statistic of 0.740 and 0.765 (optimism < 0.013), and Brier score = 0.136 and 0.069, respectively.Two prediction models for mobility decline were developed and internally validated. They are based on self-reported variables and could serve as simple assessments in primary care after external validation.