Ground-Motion Variability from Kinematic Rupture Models and the Implications for Nonergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Abstract The variability of earthquake ground motions has a strong control on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), particularly for the low frequencies of exceedance used for critical facilities. We use a crossed mixed-effects model to partition the variance components from simulated ground motions of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone. Total variability of simulated ground motions is approximately equivalent to empirical models. The high contribution from rupture speed suggests an avenue to reducing variability through research on the causes and predictions of rupture speed on specific faults. Simulations show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the variability that manifests from directivity effects. We illustrate the impact of this spatial heterogeneity on hazard using a partially nonergodic PSHA framework. The results highlight the benefit of accounting for directivity effects in nonergodic PSHA, in which models that account for additional processes controlling ground motions are paired with reductions in the modeled ground-motion variability.