Analysis of Evacuation Route Choice Decision Using the Hybrid Utility-Regret Model

The aim of this paper is to develop a hybrid utility-regret model to analyze evacuation route choice decision behavior that accounts for the regret aversion psychology under emergency context. Meanwhile, the traditional utility model and basic regret model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected from stated preference survey in Harbin during 2014. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on the evacuation route choice decision. Moreover, marginal willingness-to-pay (WTP) measures are calculated in order to evaluate evacuees’ willingness. A comparison of different models shows that the hybrid model performs better model fit and offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved regret aversion psychology over traditional utility model and basic regret model. The direct and cross elasticities based on the hybrid model are also presented. The study is expected to give a better understanding of evacuation route choice behavior for emergency actions.