China’s aviation passenger transport can reduce CO2 emissions by 2.9 billion tons by 2050 if certain abatement options are implemented

In 2021, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) pledged that the global aviation industry would achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. However, there are relatively few studies that have analyzed China’s aviation sector’s mitigation pathways, which accounts for about 14% of the world’s total aviation emissions. In the absence of effective abatement options for China, the IATA is unlikely to meet its 2050 pledge. Here, focusing on China’s air passenger transport, we conducted a techno-economic analysis of abatement options based on a fleet composition model, a CO2 emission prediction model, and an abatement costs model. We find that improvement of existing aircraft, enhancement of the air traffic management, optimization of airline operations, and transformation and upgrading of aviation manufacturing technology and fuels will help the sector achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of 2.9 billion tons by 2050 relative to 2019. Our study provides a theoretical basis for planning appropriate and diverse mitigation paths in the aviation industry.