Can tax incentives foresee the restructuring performance of tourism firms? - An event-driven forecasting study

Whether tax incentives can forecast the performance of tourism firms after restructuring remains an unsolved puzzle. Regarding restructurings as events, this work proposes an event-driven forecasting framework, in which an adaptive integrated model based on similar scenarios with optimal boundaries is designed to investigate the ability of tax incentives to forecast tourism firms' post-restructuring performance. Tax incentives are able to forecast the performance of tourism firms after restructuring, and the forecasting ability of two types of tax incentives has heterogeneity. Income tax incentives forecast decreased performance in the quarter following the announcement, while turnover tax incentives forecast increased performance in the two quarters after the announcement. When forecasting one-, two-, and three-quarter performance after the announcement, [40, 50], [20, 30], and [20, 30] are optional intervals for the optimal boundaries of tourism firms' similar restructuring scenarios. The new model is effective for forecasting tourism firm performance in restructuring.