双稳态
基本再生数
稳健性(进化)
分叉
流行病模型
数学
应用数学
稳定性理论
人口
生物
物理
非线性系统
人口学
量子力学
基因
社会学
生物化学
作者
Shaoli Wang,Tengfei Wang,Ya-Nen Qi,Fei Xu
标识
DOI:10.1142/s1793524522501327
摘要
Recent evidences show that individuals who recovered from COVID-19 can be reinfected. However, this phenomenon has rarely been studied using mathematical models. In this paper, we propose an SEIRE epidemic model to describe the spread of the epidemic with reinfection. We obtain the important thresholds [Formula: see text] (the basic reproduction number) and [Formula: see text] (a threshold less than one). Our investigations show that when [Formula: see text], the system has an endemic equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable. When [Formula: see text], the epidemic system exhibits bistable dynamics. That is, the system has backward bifurcation and the disease cannot be eradicated. In order to eradicate the disease, we must ensure that the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is less than [Formula: see text]. The basic reinfection number is obtained to measure the reinfection force, which turns out to be a new tipping point for disease dynamics. We also give definition of robustness, a new concept to measure the difficulty of completely eliminating the disease for a bistable epidemic system. Numerical simulations are carried out to verify the conclusions.
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