Long-term feasibility of carbon capturing in community energy systems: A system dynamics-based evaluation

The global climate is being heavily affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most significant of which is carbon dioxide (CO2). According to the Pan-Canadian framework on clean growth and climate change, Canada has set ambitious targets to realize a low carbon future. Amongst the available emission reduction strategies, on-site carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a proven technology capable of abating CO2 emissions from fossil fuel-based energy systems. However, the viability of CCUS technologies is still uncertain and is subjected to numerous dynamic parameters. This study aims to assess the long-term economic viability of integrating carbon capture technologies into community emission planning. Key decision variables were identified, and the dynamic economic performance of CCUS investments was assessed for academic complexes located in two locations in Canada. A system dynamics model was developed to assess the future costs of carbon capturing projects. The study outcomes showed that CCUS is more feasible in provinces with high reliance on fossil fuel energy sources. Moreover, a significant portion of carbon capture costs is taken by infrastructure. Government policies have a critical role in accelerating the commercialization of CCUS technologies. The findings from this study are geared toward providing useful decision-support tools for policy experts, investors, and utility providers who are responsible for policy and investment decisions. Policymakers and investors will be benefited from the proposed model to develop customized regional policies and make investment decisions by considering dynamic regional aspects. Moreover, the results provide insight into what areas require attention in making CCUS economically viable.