Forecasting Analysis of Land Use Dynamic Change in Liaohe River Delta Wetlands

The paper supported by 3S technology, based on the remote sensing images in different periods within the 7 years from 1988 to 2009 in Liaohe River Delta wetlands, conducts the following researches :(1) establish single dynamic degree model and comprehensive dynamic degree model, extract the data of different types of land , and analyze the reason of the changes in this region. Results indicate that: the area of residential land use in this region is increasing remarkably, reed-swamp resources is deceasing slightly, and the comprehensive land use degree is increasing stably.(2)establish the Liaohe River Delta wetlands transition probability matrix, and forecast the land use area of Liaohe River Delta in 2030 using Markov model. The results indicate that: the area of forest, reed-swamp, shoals shows a downward trend, paddy field, glebe, river/channel, reservoir/pond/lake, residential land shows an upward trend in 2030 in Liaohe River Delta wetlands. It is obvious that the area of wetlands shrunk severely. Ecological balance and quality will face crisis seriously in Liaohe River Delta wetlands in the future.