Aptitude of areas planned for sugarcane cultivation expansion in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: a study based on climate change effects

The adverse climate change effects motivate searches for renewable energy sources. Among them, ethanol from sugarcane stands out. Currently, the state of São Paulo is responsible for more than half of Brazilian ethanol production. Considering the increasing demand for ethanol in the future, the influence of climate change effects on cultivation should be assessed. To identify areas suitable for expansion, the Brazilian government carried out the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning (AEZ-Sugarcane); however, it did not consider future scenarios of climate change. In this context, this work aimed to model the sugarcane expansion in São Paulo in the years 2041 and 2060 to map low-risk areas based on climate change scenarios, in addition to comparing the expansion areas from the model with suitable AEZ-Sugarcane areas. Additionally, this work aimed to analyze recommended expansion areas by AEZ-Sugarcane according to future climate suitability. Sugarcane cultivation registers a massive expansion trend of 123% and 145% in the years 2041 and 2060, respectively, more prominent for the West, Northwest and North regions. In the years 2041 and 2060, the amount of expansion areas mapped in this study coinciding with those recommended by the AEZ-Sugarcane are 74% and 71% of the total modeled. Although in 2041-2060 all states are classified as low climate risk according to the AEZ-Sugarcane adopted methodology, it is estimated that 45% and 3% areas classified as suitable by AEZ-Sugarcane will require rescue irrigation, considering each of the two future scenarios studied.