Does It Help or Hinder? The Impact of Population Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading in Transition Economic Systems

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to develop a model for integrating data on population aging with the processes of modernization of the industrial structure from the point of view of the influence of spatial dependencies. Based on theoretical and Chinese provincial panel data analysis, this study examined the industrial structure upgrading effect of population aging using a panel threshold model and a dynamic spatial Durbin model. The findings indicate that population aging (OPP) has a significant positive effect on the advancement of industrial structure (AIS) and service structure upgrading (SSU), with a single threshold effect. Economic development was found to promote benefits from the AIS while weakening those from the SSU. The upgrading effect of the industrial structure was noted to vary with economic development. The dynamic effect of industrial structure upgrading was also substantial. OPP was found to meaningfully promote the rationalization of industrial structure (RIS), MSU, and SSU in the eastern region, AIS and RIS in the central region, and RIS in the western region of China, along with positive spatial spillover effects.