No evidence of a causal relationship between miscarriage and 25-hydroxyvitamin D: a mendelian randomization study

Abstract STUDY QUESTION Is there a causal relationship between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and miscarriage? SUMMARY ANSWER In this study, little evidence of a causal relationship was found between low serum 25OHD concentration or vitamin D deficiency and the risk of miscarriages. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Associations between low vitamin D levels and increased risk of miscarriage have been reported, but causality is unclear. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION The latest and largest genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for serum 25OHD concentration (n = 417 580), vitamin D deficiency (426 cases and 354 812 controls), miscarriage (16 906 cases and 149 622 controls), and the number of miscarriages (n = 78 700) were used to explore the causal association between serum vitamin D levels and miscarriage by two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS This study was based on summary GWAS results from the FinnGen database and the UK Biobank. The random-effect inverse-variance weighted method was regarded as the primary analysis; MR-Egger, weighted median, weighted mode, simple mode, and MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) were further employed as complementary methods. MR-Egger intercept analysis and MR-PRESSO were employed to test pleiotropy, and Cochran’s Q statistic and leave-one-out sensitivity analysis were used to determine the heterogeneity and robustness of the overall estimates, respectively. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE There was insufficient evidence of causal associations between serum 25OHD concentration and miscarriage (odds ratio (OR) = 0.995, 95% CI: 0.888 to 1.114, P = 0.927), or the number of miscarriages (β = –0.004, 95% CI: –0.040 to 0.032, P = 0.829). Furthermore, little evidence of causality between genetically determined vitamin D deficiency to miscarriage (OR = 0.993, 95% CI: 0.966 to 1.021, P = 0.624), or the number of miscarriages (β = 0.001, 95% CI: −0.009 to 0.011, P = 0.828), was observed. The results of the sensitivity analysis were robust, and no significant heterogeneity or horizontal pleiotropy was found. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION This study is limited by the absence of female-specific GWAS data and the limited amount of GWAS data available for this study, as well as the need for caution in generalizing the findings to non-European ethnic groups. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS These findings enhance the current understanding of the intricate association between vitamin D and pregnancy outcomes, challenging prevailing beliefs regarding the strong association with miscarriage. The results provide a special perspective that may prompt further exploration and potentially offer insights for guiding future research and informing clinical guidelines pertaining to the management of miscarriage. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This project was supported by the Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation Program General Surface Project (2022CFB200), the Key Research & Developmental Program of of Hubei Province (2022BCA042), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2042022gf0007, 2042022kf1210), and the Interdisciplinary Innovative Talents Foundation from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (JCRCWL-2022-001, JCRCYG-2022-009). All authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A.