Mitigating farmland use carbon emissions: The dynamic role of farmland use transition

China's carbon emissions contribute to approximately one-quarter of the global greenhouse gas emissions, with farmland use carbon emission (FUCE) emerging as a significant contributor. Recognizing the global importance of the farmland use system and the spatial intricacies of FUCE, it becomes imperative to examine the spatial impact of farmland use transition (FUT) on FUCE. This study reveals noteworthy spatial correlation disparities between FUCE and various FUT forms within the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Employing spatial econometric models, we explore the direct and spillover effects of dominant farmland use transition (DFUT) and recessive farmland use transition (RFUT) on FUCE. Among these transformations, quantitative farmland use transition (QFUT), production function farmland use transition (PFFUT), and living function farmland use transition (LFFUT) exhibit substantial positive direct effects and spatial spillover effects on FUCE. Conversely, spatial structure farmland use transition (SSFUT) and ecological function farmland use transition (EFFUT) demonstrate noteworthy reduction effects on FUCE. In both the short and long run, SSFUT and EFFUT play vital roles in suppressing FUCE, with the long-term effects proving more pronounced than their short-term counterparts. These findings underscore the importance of optimizing farmland use spatial structure and promoting ecologically sound land use practices to mitigate FUCE effectively.