Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops under various climate change scenarios

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable for the information they provide to reduce the potential negative effects of climatic factors on agricultural production systems. Such information may be used to prevent the entry and spread of invasive species in new areas, as well as to monitor regions with current occurrence. This is the first study of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) global distribution, focusing on the risk of this disease in areas projected to be suitable for open field tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) and for whitefly (Bemisia tabaci - biotypes B and Q). TYLCV (Begomovirus) is an important virus transmitted by B. tabaci and poses a risk to S. lycopersicum cultivation worldwide. Despite the importance of TYLCV, the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of TYLCV in agricultural crops remains unstudied. The aim of this study was to identify the invasion risk levels for TYLCV in areas optimally conducive for open field tomato cultivation and suitable for B. tabaci (biotypes B and Q) under projected climate changes for the years 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model (HadGEM2_ES, MIROC5 and CCSM4) under four scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our results show that large regions are projected to be suitable for TYLCV in areas of suitability for B. tabaci and optimal for open field tomato cultivation. In the predictions, most areas with optimal conditions for S. lycopersicum and suitable for B. tabaci will be under medium suitability for TYLCV under climate change scenarios. This research may be useful to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of TYLCV where the occurrence has not yet been reported.