Evidence-Theory-Based Reliability Analysis Through Kriging Surrogate Model

Abstract It is generally understood that intractable computational intensity stemming from repeatedly calling performance function when evaluating the contribution of joint focal elements hinders the application of evidence theory in practical engineering. In order to promote the practicability of evidence theory for the reliability evaluation of engineering structures, an efficient reliability analysis method based on the active learning Kriging model is proposed in this study. To start with, a basic variable is selected according to basic probability assignment (BPA) of evidence variables to divide the evidence space into sub-evidence spaces. Intersection points between the performance function and the sub-evidence spaces are then determined by solving the univariate root-finding problem. Sample points are randomly identified to enhance the accuracy of the subsequently established surrogate model. Initial Kriging model with high approximation accuracy is subsequently established through these intersection points and additional sample points generated by Latin hypercube sampling. An active learning function is employed to sequentially refine the Kriging model with minimal sample points. As a result, belief (Bel) measure and plausibility (Pl) measure are derived efficiently via the surrogate model in the evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. The currently proposed analysis method is exemplified with three numerical examples to demonstrate the efficiency and is applied to reliability analysis of positioning accuracy for an industrial robot.