COVID-19 Boon or Bane: A case study of Air pollutant transport in the Yangtze River Delta region and its consequent health effects during the COVID-19 lockdown period

This study investigates the transport of air pollutants around the Yangtze River Delta with an aim to identify if there would be a relationship towards health effects during the COVID-19 lockdown period. It is well-known that due to lockdown, the number of socio-economical activities are reduced and hence there is an observable reduction in air pollution. We would like to investigate if this consequential reduction of air pollution would lead to improvement in health amongst its population. A number of integrated methodologies are utilized, including collection and correlation of statistical data and numerical modeling to correlate the mortality rates difference with and without COVID-19 lockdown. In particular air quality changes during the COVID-19 lockdown period are compared with similar periods of the previous years using Brute Force Method. It is found that in general there is significant reduction in air-pollution related mortality, like stroke, ischemic cardio diseases, obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer and acute lower respiratory infection are all reduced as a result of relative improvement in PM2.5 level during the lockdown period. Further investigation of the trajectories suggests that these PM2.5 originate from afar with multiple sources, and do not suggest COVID-19 are transported to the region via long-range transport. Our results demonstrate the need for more stringent policy measure to tackle air pollution as it has strong evidence that it increases mortality rate.