Agricultural carbon emissions in China: measurement, spatiotemporal evolution, and influencing factors analysis

Introduction The agricultural sector is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for 23% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions. Analysis of the basic state of carbon emissions from China's agriculture is helpful to achieve carbon reduction targets. Methods Agricultural carbon emissions were calculated using the emission factor method, based on data from the China Rural Statistical Yearbook and various provincial statistical yearbooks. To analyze spatial patterns, the standard deviation ellipse method and the center of gravity migration model were employed, uncovering the migration path of agricultural carbon emissions. Regional disparities and the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions were further examined using the Theil index and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. Results The analysis indicated that the emissions center has gradually shifted towards the central and western regions, reflecting changes in agricultural production activity areas. Intraregional differences are the primary contributors to the imbalance in agricultural carbon emissions, with pronounced disparities in grain production and consumption balance regions. Key influencing factors include agricultural production efficiency, adjustments in agricultural industrial structure, economic structure and output, and urbanization levels. The economic output effect and urbanization effect are identified as the main drivers of increased carbon emissions, while declining production efficiency has hindered emission reduction efforts. Conclusion The findings provide valuable insights for regional management and policymaking in China's agricultural sector, highlighting the need to enhance production efficiency and optimize agricultural structure to reduce emissions.