Forecast of renewable energy penetration potential in the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China

In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, improving the renewable energy penetration potential is an effective strategy to develop a new-type power system. However, the penetration strain is enormous due to the instability of renewable energy power generation. Accurately predicting the development trend of renewable energy penetration potential and analyzing its influence mechanism have vital theoretical and practical significance for the government to promote carbon neutrality in the power industry. We first analyze the driving factors of renewable energy penetration, and then apply the quantum harmony search (QHS) optimized modified discounted mean squared forecast error (MDMSFE) combined forecast model to forecast renewable energy penetration potential for the next five years. Furthermore, we use scenario analysis and single-factor sensitivity analysis to investigate the impact mechanism of renewable energy penetration. The main conclusions include: the renewable energy power generation proportion will reach 33.815% under the benchmark scenario by 2025; economic growth, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption, the implementation of transmission line projects, and power consumption all have a positive effect on renewable energy penetration; the increase in the price of fossil energy has a negative effect on the renewable energy penetration; and the current carbon trading market and cross-regional power trading do not significantly promote renewable energy penetration.