Predicting the Probability of Recurrence Based on Individualized Risk Factors After Primary Lateral Patellar Dislocation Treated Nonoperatively

To develop a comprehensive and effective personalized scoring system on the basis of demographic and clinical characteristics for predicting recurrence probability in patients with primary lateral patellar dislocation (LPD).Participants included 261 primary patients with LPD with 2-year minimum follow-up from our hospital across 2013 to 2020. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected retrospectively. The backward stepwise method was performed to identify independent predictors and construct a nomogram to predict the probability of recurrence. The predictive performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.After variables selection, 6 independent predictors of recurrence (skeletal maturity, trochlear dysplasia, tibial tuberosity-trochlear groove distance, mechanical axis deviation, Insall-Salvati index, and patellar tilt) were enrolled in our model. Validation of this nomogram in both training and validation cohort revealed powerful predictive ability, with an area under the curve of 0.962 and 0.977, respectively. The nomogram also showed great calibration and good clinical practicability.Our study presented a nomogram that incorporates 6 independent risk factors (skeletal maturity, trochlear dysplasia, tibial tuberosity-trochlear groove distance, mechanical axis deviation, Insall-Salvati index, and patellar tilt), which can be conveniently used to accurately predicts the risk of recurrence after primary LPD in individual cases.Level III, retrospective comparative prognostic study.