Regional offshore ground motion prediction model from a referenced empirical approach: A case study in the Japan Trench area

With increasing resource exploitation and engineering construction offshore, the seismic safety of offshore structures has received attention from researchers and designers, and an offshore ground motion prediction model (GMPM) can be used to estimate the possible earthquake response of structures and provide the foundation for seismic fortification of structures. Because there are few strong motion records recorded by offshore stations, there are insufficient empirical data in the magnitude-distance range to directly develop a GMPM using empirical regression techniques. To develop a reliable GMPM for data-poor offshore regions, we used a referenced empirical approach based on an onshore empirical prediction model. We collected 2605 records from 138 crustal earthquake events, 2669 records from 125 slab earthquake events and 5693 records from 267 interface earthquake events recorded by S-net stations. We used the existing Japanese onshore GMPM as a reference model. Then, we analyzed the residuals of the reference model for offshore data and calculated its adjustment factors. Finally, we developed a GMPM for the Japan Trench area and compared it with the existing onshore models. The proposed model fit the data subsets at hypocentral distances of 20–300 km reasonably well. There were different spectral accelerations (SAs) for different source types, with considerably larger SAs for short periods of offshore motions from crustal events than for the motions from the other two types, and the difference becomes more obvious with the increase of magnitude. At short periods, the SAs of the offshore motions from slab events were slightly larger than those of the motions from the interface events. The discrepancy of the offshore and onshore GMPM was significant, and the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and SAs of the offshore ground motions were apparently greater than those of onshore ground motions of the same magnitude and distance. The offshore GMPM established by the reference empirical approach contribute to studying the characteristics of offshore strong ground motions, and this approach can be applied to data-poor regions.