Forecasting Annual or Seasonal Peak Demand in Electric Utility Systems

Of the several methods for annual (or seasonal) peak- demand forecasting being used, or under development, by electric utility companies, some are more suitable for probabilistic forecasts than others. This paper reviews six possible approaches to peak-demand forecasting but places greatest emphasis on probabilistic monthly or weekly peak demand forecasting and the derivation of annual peak forecasts from monthly or weekly forecasts. An introduction to the use of stochastic models for demand forecasting is also included.