Assessment of spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem service values and hotspots in a dryland: A case‐study in Pakistan

Abstract Ecosystem services (ES) provided by dryland ecosystems store nearly half and one‐third of the Earth's terrestrial biomass and biodiversity, respectively. Pakistan is a typical dryland region with significant land degradation and dramatic changes in ES in recent decades, which has not been sufficiently investigated. This study explored the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem service values (ESV) over Pakistan (2001–2018) by combining land use/cover data, economic modeling, and hotspot analysis. From the achieved results, the total ESV indicated an improvement in ES before 2012 and then showed a declining trend. The largest contribution was attributed to the increase in forest/shrubland by 16.17% (2001–2006) and 10.36% (2006–2012). However, the ESV decreased to 7.76% from 2012 to 2018, which was mainly attributed to the decrease in cropland and grassland. Heterogeneous changes were observed in ESV. The hotspot of ESV change (approximately an area of 32,578 km 2 ) was mainly located in the southern and southeastern parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), the northeastern part of Balochistan and the central and western parts of Sindh Province. The cold spot (approximately an area of 24,491 km 2 ) showed a distribution in the northern part of KPK and Gilgit Baltistan, northeastern Punjab, coastal regions, and southeastern Sindh Province. We also found that although the total ESV and gross domestic product (GDP) indicated growth, the proportion of ESV from the total ESV and GDP (%ESV) exhibited a negative trend. The Provinces of Punjab and Balochistan retained the highest value of %ESV, while Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan were much lower. These results reflected the spatial imbalance of ecosystem protection and economic development in Pakistan. We recommend that necessary actions for conserving ES are important to strengthen ecological conservation in Pakistan. Additionally, further interdisciplinary research is needed to fully explore synergies in conserving ES and economical conservation.