A Study on Solar Cell Technology Forecasting Using TFDEA

Countries worldwide are enhancing national competitiveness by securing new technologies through technological innovation.The energy industry, a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, is leading the way in developing various technologies, such as solar, wind, and hydrogen, to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.Among these renewable energy technologies, solar cell technology is being developed into various competitive types due to its ability to utilize infinite solar energy.Although various methodologies are being used to forecast technological developments in the energy field, more research is needed to forecast changes in the performance of the technology itself.Therefore, this study conducted a forecast on the performance of solar cell technology.The TFDEA model was used to forecast technological performance, analyzing changes in the core performance of solar cells, including efficiency, open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, and fill factor.Based on data from the NREL, we analyzed 522 solar cell products developed from 1976 to 2023.As a result, Thin-Film Technologies showed the highest rate of technological change at 9.07%, while Multijunction had the lowest change rate at 0.05%.Changes in performance rankings over time were observed for each technology.Through this study, we confirmed the applicability of predicting future solar cell technology by forecasting changes in performance between comparative technologies.In particular, this approach is expected to be useful in setting quantitative indicators needed for developing renewable energy technologies.