Bayesian dose escalation with overdose and underdose control utilizing all toxicities in Phase I/II clinical trials

Abstract Escalation with overdose control (EWOC) is a commonly used Bayesian adaptive design, which controls overdosing risk while estimating maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in cancer Phase I clinical trials. In 2010, Chen and his colleagues proposed a novel toxicity scoring system to fully utilize patients’ toxicity information by using a normalized equivalent toxicity score (NETS) in the range 0 to 1 instead of a binary indicator of dose limiting toxicity (DLT). Later in 2015, by adding underdosing control into EWOC, escalation with overdose and underdose control (EWOUC) design was proposed to guarantee patients the minimum therapeutic effect of drug in Phase I/II clinical trials. In this paper, the EWOUC‐NETS design is developed by integrating the advantages of EWOUC and NETS in a Bayesian context. Moreover, both toxicity response and efficacy are treated as continuous variables to maximize trial efficiency. The dose escalation decision is based on the posterior distribution of both toxicity and efficacy outcomes, which are recursively updated with accumulated data. We compare the operation characteristics of EWOUC‐NETS and existing methods through simulation studies under five scenarios. The study results show that EWOUC‐NETS design treating toxicity and efficacy outcomes as continuous variables can increase accuracy in identifying the optimized utility dose (OUD) and provide better therapeutic effects.