Quantifying the impact of the Grain-for-Green Program on ecosystem service scarcity value in Qinghai, China

Studying the impact of large-scale ecological projects, such as the Grain-for-Green Program (GGP), on ecosystem services (ES) is currently a frontier and hot topic of ecological research. The GGP can directly change land use and land cover, thus affecting ES. By comparing the changes of ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecosystem service scarcity value (ESSV) in Qinghai before and after the implementation of the GGP, this paper clarified the impact of the GGP on Qinghai from the angles of ecology and economics. This paper quantified and evaluated the land use dynamics, ESV, and ESSV in Qinghai from 1995 to 2020. The results showed that in the past 25 years, the total annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Qinghai showed a trend of sustained growth. From 1995 to 2020, the ESV increased by 6.80%. After considering supply and demand, the ESSV showed a continuous upward trend, increasing by 719.38%. After implementation of the GGP, the increase of NDVI inhibited the increase of the ESSV. These findings from evaluation of the effect of the GGP implementation provide a theoretical basis for future policy implementation and, in particular, a reference for the evaluation of the ESV and the ESSV in Qinghai.