The Beads, the Fish and the Box: Interrelationship Between “jumping to Conclusions” Tasks and Their Links with Cognitive Abilities

Jumping to conclusions (JTC) is a reasoning bias where individuals make hasty decisions based on insufficient data. It is commonly observed among patients with delusions and is a risk factor for developing delusions. Several task paradigms have been developed to test JTC, but their convergence in measuring JTC remains unexplored. This is a pilot test to examine the consistencies between three JTC tasks with a student sample. The relationships between JTC and cognitive abilities were also explored. Forty-six university students completed the Beads Task, Fish Task and Box Task, as well as assessment of memory, intellectual functioning, executive function, impulsivity and need for closure. There was a moderate correlation between the beads task and fish task on various measures of JTC (draws to decision [DTD], r=.50, p<.01; confidence, r=.47, p<.01; dichotomous JTC bias, ×2=16.14, p<.001). There was a mild correlation between DTD on the fish task and box task (r=.30, p<.05). General intelligence was associated with DTD and JTC bias (but not confidence) on the beads and fish tasks. Confidence in decision was associated with a higher level of impulsivity and a lower level of set-shifting ability. Despite differences in materials and design of the three probability-based tasks, results of JTC measured by the beads task and box task were individually consistent with the fish task, and were not correlated between the two. The data-gathering process and the confidence in decision are associated with different cognitive abilities. Further study including a clinical sample is needed.