Wheat breeding trials will lose climate relevance in Europe

Abstract Europe is a major wheat producer, but rising frequencies of drought and heatwaves increasingly threaten yields. To support breeding strategies aligned with future climatic challenges, we identified current European environments that are analogous to projected future drought and heat stress conditions in major wheat-growing regions. Using gridded crop model simulations with historical and future climate data from an ensemble of five global circulation models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios), we characterized stress patterns during key wheat developmental phases. We clustered environments into stress classes and computed a continuous similarity index to map analogue regions. Our results show that by the end of the century, most official value for cultivation and use (VCU) trial sites will face intensified drought and heat stresses, with stress combinations exceeding historical ranges. Current climate analogues for most VCU wheat trial sites in Central Europe are predominantly located in southern Spain, southern Italy, and parts of Greece, yet these analogue environments are projected to decrease substantially under high-emission scenarios. The disappearance of climate analogues threatens breeding based on past conditions. Our results highlight the need to rapidly adapt wheat breeding strategies in Europe to future climate conditions.