Development of a novel framework for agriculture simulation model for food-energy-water nexus analysis in watershed-scale

Agricultural crop production is the most vital sector of the food subsystem within the Food-Water-Energy (FEW) Nexus system, and many environmental and external factors affect it. Complex interactions between FEW subsystems and complex interrelations within each FEW subsystems affect each other dynamically. As a result, in this study, based on the dynamics between FEW subsystems and within FEW subsystems in agriculture, the Agriculture Simulation Model for the Food-Energy-Water nexus (ASM-FEW) is presented at the watershed scale. ASM-FEW includes modules for multi-crop yield modeling and calibration, energy consumption, indices related to FEW, and a comprehensive Water-Energy-Food Nexus Index (WEFNI) to assess crop production efficiency FEW Nexus approach. Modeling evaluation criteria demonstrate the precise crop yield modeling of ASM-FEW for the study area, the Maragheh-Bonab region in the Urmia Lake Basin, from 2005 to 2015. Model evaluation criteria demonstrate precise crop yield modeling. Results show that Potato and rainfed Chickpea exhibit the highest and lowest energy consumption indices, at 222,766 and 19,503 MJ/ha, respectively. Water economic productivity indices indicate irrigated Potato and Wheat as the highest and lowest, with values of 1.084 and 0.114 $/m3, respectively. Energy economic productivity indices reveal that irrigated Onion and rainfed Wheat are the highest and lowest, at 0.132 and 0.006 $/MJ, respectively. Lastly, according to the WEFNI index, irrigated Onion and irrigated Wheat are the most and least suitable crops for cultivation, with values of 0.66 and 0.264, respectively.