Unsupervised machine learning model to predict cognitive impairment in subcortical ischemic vascular disease

Abstract INTRODUCTION It is challenging to predict which patients who meet criteria for subcortical ischemic vascular disease (SIVD) will ultimately progress to subcortical vascular cognitive impairment (SVCI). METHODS We collected clinical information, neuropsychological assessments, T1 imaging, diffusion tensor imaging, and resting‐state functional magnetic resonance imaging from 83 patients with SVCI and 53 age‐matched patients with SIVD without cognitive impairment. We built an unsupervised machine learning model to isolate patients with SVCI. The model was validated using multimodal data from an external cohort comprising 45 patients with SVCI and 32 patients with SIVD without cognitive impairment. RESULTS The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the unsupervised machine learning model were 86.03%, 79.52%, and 96.23% and 80.52%, 71.11%, and 93.75% for internal and external cohort, respectively. DISCUSSION We developed an accurate and accessible clinical tool which requires only data from routine imaging to predict patients at risk of progressing from SIVD to SVCI. Highlights Our unsupervised machine learning model provides an accurate and accessible clinical tool to predict patients at risk of progressing from subcortical ischemic vascular disease (SIVD) to subcortical vascular cognitive impairment (SVCI) and requires only data from imaging routinely used during the diagnosis of suspected SVCI. The model yields good accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity and is portable to other cohorts and to clinical practice to distinguish patients with SIVD at risk for progressing to SVCI. The model combines assessment of diffusion tensor imaging and functional magnetic resonance imaging measures in patients with SVCI to analyze whether the “disconnection hypothesis” contributes to functional and structural changes and to the clinical presentation of SVCI.