Analysis of the Risk Factors of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema and Construction and Evaluation of a Prediction Model

Objective: The occurrence of breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL) in postoperative breast cancer survivors is described and the independent risk factors of BCRL are analyzed. A BCRL nomogram prediction model is constructed, and its effectiveness is evaluated to screen out high-risk patients with BCRL. Methods: A univariate analysis was carried out to determine the risk factors possibly related to BCRL, and a logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the independent risk factors related to BCRL. A BCRL nomogram prediction model was built, and a nomogram was drawn by R software v4.1.0. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the efficacy of the constructed model to assess its clinical application value. Results: The risk factors independently associated with BCRL were body mass index (BMI), handedness on the operation side, no BCRL-related rehabilitation plan, axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), taxane-based chemotherapy, and radiotherapy (all p < 0.05). The BCRL nomogram prediction model was built on this basis, and the results of the efficacy evaluation showed a good fit: AUC = 0.952 (95% confidence interval: 0.930-0.973) for the ROC and χ2 = 6.963, p = 0.540 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Conclusions: The risk factors for BCRL included higher BMI, handedness on the operation side, no BCRL-related rehabilitation plan, ALND, taxane-based chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. In addition, the BCRL nomogram prediction model accurately calculated the risk of possible BCRL among breast cancer survivors and effectively screened for high-risk patients with BCRL. Therefore, this prediction model can provide a basis for rehabilitation physicians and therapists to formulate early and individualized prevention and treatment programs.