Development and validation of an EUS-based nomogram for prediction of the malignant potential in gastrointestinal stromal tumors

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumors in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract that require different therapeutic interventions according to the malignancy. We aim to develop and validate a EUS (endoscopic ultrasonography)-based nomogram to predict malignant potential in patients with GIST. METHODS: = 79). We established a nomogram using lasso regression based on DC data. The predictive effectiveness of the nomogram was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Through bootstrapping, a consistency index (C-index) and calibration chart are developed to evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 192 patients with low-malignant potential (very low and low-risk) GISTs and 66 patients with high-malignant potential (intermediate and high-risk) GISTs were included in this study. The nomogram was constructed with the following 6 EUS indicators: ulceration, hemorrhage, tumor shape, irregular border, transverse diameter, and necrosis. Internal and external validation showed that the nomogram had a good ability to predict the malignant potential of GISTs (AUC = 0.881 and 0.908, respectively). The calibration curve shows that the nomogram has a good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities for differentiating GISTs malignancy (C-index = 0.868 and 0.907, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and verified a EUS-based nomogram, which can effectively predict the malignant potential of patients with gastric GISTs.