Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies for the Taihu Basin, China

Abstract The assessment of flood risk is now widely recognised to need research and data on both the probability and the consequences of flooding; the research reported here concentrates on the latter data input. Building on the UK F oresight F uture F looding project, this paper describes the development of future scenarios through which to assess possible future flood risk in the T aihu B asin area of C hina. In addition, we describe the flood damage assessment model that was developed there to build on these scenarios so as to calculate anticipated risk. Acknowledged methodological limitations remain, but some important developments have resulted. First, the pre‐existing flood loss data that were available from S hanghai meant that this aspect of the risk model's input was more regionally appropriate than would otherwise have been the case. Second, the damage assessment has been related both to constructed scenarios and to an agreed N ational P lan, so that the two can be compared. Third, the scenario construction was linked in T aihu to the statistical base contained in the 2006 Y earbook and the F ifth N ational S ocio‐economic S urvey data, giving a sounder ‘base case’ of current flood vulnerability than used in the UK F oresight F uture F looding project. Finally, much more attention was given here to agricultural production and flood risk, given the importance of agriculture in the C hinese economy and its focus on food production for a growing population.