Construction of Prediction Model of Renal Damage in Children with Henoch-Schönlein Purpura Based on Machine Learning

Objective. The children with Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP) may suffer from renal insufficiency, which seriously affects the life and health of the children. This study aims to construct a prediction model of Henoch-Schönlein purpura nephritis (HSPN). Methods. A total of 240 children with HSP treated in dermatology and pediatrics in our hospital were selected. The general information, patients’ clinical symptoms, and laboratory examination indicators were collected for feature selection, and the XGBoost algorithm prediction model was built. Results. According to the input feature indexes, the top ten crucial feature indicators output by the XGBoost model were urine N-acetyl-β-D-aminoglucosidase, urinary retinol-binding protein, IgA, age, recurrence of purpura, purpura area, abdominal pain, 24-h urinary protein quantification, percentage of neutrophils, and serum albumin. The areas under the curves of the training set (0.895, 95% CI: 0.827-0.963) and test set (0.870, 95% CI: 0.799-0.941) models were similar. Conclusion. The prediction model based on XGBoost is used to predict HSP renal damage based on clinical data of children, which can reduce the harm caused by invasive examination for patients.