Comprehensive assessment of climate-driven distribution dynamics and anthocyanin variation in Lycium ruthenicum using MaxEnt, HPLC, and Chemometric approaches

Climate change impacts the geographical distribution of medicinal plant habitats, disrupting the biosynthesis and accumulation of secondary metabolites, which in turn reduces the phytochemical quality and therapeutic potential of herbal resources. However, the potential effects of climate change on Lycium ruthenicum Murray (LRM) have not been thoroughly explored. In this study, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were employed to predict shifts in the habitat suitability of LRM under future climate scenarios, while HPLC was used to quantify the anthocyanin content in LRM fruits. Chemometric techniques, including PCA and HCA, were then applied to assess LRM samples from various habitats with differing ecological suitability. The results indicated that precipitation, temperature, and altitude were the primary factors driving LRM distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats were expected to shift northwestward, with a relatively stable overall geographic range. PCA and HCA successfully differentiated LRM samples based on anthocyanin content across different origins. Correlation analysis further revealed that temperature, precipitation, and altitude were key factors influencing anthocyanin accumulation. This study provides valuable insights for optimizing LRM cultivation zones, establishing quality standards, and enhancing the agro-industrial value chain. • L. ruthenicum (LRM) distribution was evaluated and predicted using MaxEnt. • Key factors impacting distribution were precipitation, altitude, and temperature. • Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats were located in Northwest China. • Climate change will reduce LRM distribution, shifting it higher altitudes. • The main environmental drivers of LRM anthocyanin accumulation were identified.