Spatio‐temporal trend and mitigation of human–elephant conflict in Xishuangbanna, China

Abstract With strict enforcement of the legal protection for Asian elephants ( Elephas maximus ) in China, the elephant population has steadily increased from 146 elephants in 1976 to over 300 elephants in 2023. More elephants occur in highly fragmented and human‐dominated landscapes, resulting in serious human–elephant conflicts (HEC). We investigated the temporal and spatial aspects of HEC in Xishuangbanna Prefecture, China, from 2011‒2015 and 2016‒2020. We analyzed the characteristics of crop raiding, property damage, and human injury and death by elephants. Then, we employed a multi‐model ensemble forecasting framework to perform a risk assessment, and compared the changes in HEC hotspots to explore the factors influencing conflict. Our data revealed that 91,311 HEC compensations were recorded from 2011‒2020 with a total compensation amount of 127.01 million yuan (17.40 million USD), 89.75% of which was crop compensation. Areas of risk in 2011‒2015 and 2016‒2020 were 2,505 km 2 and 3,157 km 2 , respectively, with an increase in area of 26.01%. The HEC risk areas were mainly distributed in nature reserves and surrounding areas, and >65% of the risk areas were located in land‐use types dominated by artificial planting. Distance to farmland, distance to sparse wood, and slope had the greatest relative importance in the risk model evaluation. The mitigation measures that we recommend include strengthening the monitoring system for Asian elephants in areas with current and potential HEC risks; improving compensation mechanisms, such as determining accurate annual premiums, establishing a shared loss compensation mechanism, and ensuring a fair, transparent, and timely compensation process; and proposing habitat conservation measures, such as restoring suitable habitats for Asian elephants, establishing ecological corridors between nature reserves, and creating a nature reserve system based on the Asian Elephant National Park to enhance the habitat of Asian elephants.