African swine fever, consumer confidence and pork consumption behaviours in China: a case study in Shanghai

Purpose This study investigates how African swine fever (ASF) impacts pork consumption among urban residents in China through changes in consumer safety confidence, focusing on consumption behaviour changes. Design/methodology/approach We conducted three surveys of urban residents in 13 urban areas of Shanghai on their pork purchasing patterns and perception on the pork food safety system in 2017, 2018 and 2020. Based on these data, we used a heteroskedastic ordered probit (HETOP) model approach to analyse (1) how ASF has impacted household pork consumption and (2) how the key food safety information remedies have played a role in reducing the negative impact of the ASF. Findings ASF outbreak and control measures changed pork consumption in the study area, through price and food safety effects of the ASF. Food safety effect is relevant to consumer confidence (CC) which is relevant to the trust in pork safety. In the Chinese ASF case, the price effect is primarily caused by panic cull of animals and subsequent changes in animal production cycle, while the negative food safety effect has been eliminated by measures taken in mitigating ASF risks and improvements in food safety management system through effective risk communication. This study also found that traditional information remedies were not working effectively in improving CC in a novel food safety incident, such as ASF in China. Originality/value We developed a framework to analyse food consumption under the ASF and found that ASF impacted pork consumption through a combination of price and food safety effects. Specifically, ASF immediately increased the exposure of pork safety risk, while an effective ASF risk communication and control measures have helped to mitigate part of the safety risks. Based on these findings, we propose countermeasures to boost CC and promote healthy development in food safety management in the pig industry.