Co-drivers of Air Pollutant and CO2 Emissions from On-Road Transportation in China 2010–2020

Co-controlling the emissions of air pollutants and CO2 from automobiles is crucial for addressing the intertwined challenges of air pollution and climate change in China. Here, we analyze the synergetic characteristics of air pollutant and CO2 emissions from China's on-road transportation and identify the co-drivers influencing these trends. Using detailed emission inventories and employing index decomposition analysis, we found that despite notable progress in pollution control, minimizing on-road CO2 emissions remains a formidable task. Over 2010-2020, the estimated sectoral emissions of VOCs, NOx, PM2.5, and CO declined by 49.9%, 25.9%, 75.2%, and 63.5%, respectively, while CO2 emissions increased by 46.1%. Light-duty passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks have been identified as the primary contributors to carbon-pollution co-emissions, highlighting the need for tailored policies. The driver analysis indicates that socioeconomic changes are primary drivers of emission growth, while policy controls, particularly advances in emission efficiency, can facilitate co-reductions. Regional disparities emphasize the need for policy refinement, including reducing dependency on fuel vehicles in the passenger subsector and prioritizing co-reduction strategies in high-emission provinces in the freight subsector. Overall, our study confirms the effectiveness of China's on-road control policies and provides valuable insights for future policy makers in China and other similarly positioned developing countries.