A Framework for Exploring “Transfer‐Out” Land Parcels for Urban Development Under the Ecological Control Line (ECL) Policy in China

ABSTRACT How to explore land spaces for future urban expansion under the ECL policy in China has been an essential issue. Previous methods or models just consider the land parcel's current land‐use condition, while ignoring its future urbanization trend. This study proposes a framework for identifying the suitable “transfer‐out” land parcels within the ECL by integrating the future urbanization probability and ecosystem services value. First, a vector‐based cellular automata is adopted to determine urbanization probabilities of land parcels, and the ecosystem services values are evaluated based on the calculated equivalent table. Then, a “two‐way screening” method is proposed to identify “transfer‐out” land parcels by prioritizing the minimization of ecological value losses and the maximization of urban development benefits. The identified land parcels are evaluated at the suitability level by parcel connectivity analysis. The proposed framework was applied in Shenzhen, China. The results indicated that several “transfer‐out” land clusters more suitable for planning as residential or public‐service lands. This framework can provide global city planners with valuable policy guidance for dealing with similar ecological pressures.