Risk factors for the development of cryptogenic stroke and the predictive value of right-to-left shunt in patent foramen ovale.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the right-to-left shunt of the patent foramen ovale and the risk score for paradoxical embolism in cryptogenic stroke, as well as the risk factors for the development of cryptogenic stroke. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on 257 patients with cryptogenic stroke who were diagnosed and treated in our hospital from February 2020 to January 2022 as a study group, and 98 patients who were diagnosed and treated at the Department of Neurology in our hospital at the same time and excluded from stroke, were selected as the control group. Transcranial Doppler ultrasound acoustic contrast testing was used to grade right-to-left shunts of patent foramen ovale. Clinical information of individuals who had cryptogenic strokes was examined. The correlation between the right-to-left shunt of patent foramen ovale and the risk score for both cryptogenic stroke and paradoxical embolism was analyzed. The factors affecting the occurrence of cryptogenic stroke were investigated. The correlation between right-to-left shunt and paradoxical embolism risk score was explored. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate each factor's clinical usefulness in predicting the occurrence of cryptogenic stroke. RESULTS: No difference was observed in the history of hypertension, low-density lipoprotein, C-reactive protein and fibrinogen between the control group and the study group (p<0.05). In the study group with patent foramen ovale, the proportion of patients with grades I and II of the right-to-left shunt of patent foramen ovale was significantly lower than that in the control group, while the percentage of patients with grades III and IV was obviously greater than that in the control group (p<0.05). Right-to-left shunt grade, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen were independent risk factors for cryptogenic stroke by logistic multivariate regression analysis (p<0.05). With an increase in the right-to-left shunt of the patent foramen ovale, patients' risk scores for paradoxical embolism increased considerably (p<0.05). In patients with cryptogenic stroke, the right-to-left shunt grade of the patent foramen ovale was positively connected with the paradoxical embolism risk score (r=0.331, p<0.001). ROC analysis results showed that the areas under the curves (AUC) of right-to-left shunt grading, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen were 0.651, 0.871, and 0.779, respectively. The combination of the three indexes had an AUC of 0.908, a sensitivity of 87.90%, a specificity of 82.70%, and a Youden index of 0.706, indicating a high predictive value of the combination. CONCLUSIONS: The right-to-left shunt of patent foramen ovale was an independent risk factor for cryptogenic stroke, which was positively correlated with the paradoxical embolic risk score. Its combination with clinical serologic indexes had a high clinical value for predicting cryptogenic stroke.