MRI-Based Radiomics and Delta-Radiomics Models of the Patella Predict the Radiographic Progression of Osteoarthritis: Data From the FNIH OA Biomarkers Consortium

To analyse the MRI-based radiomics and delta-radiomics features to establish radiomics models for predicting the radiographic progression of osteoarthritis (OA).The data used in this research come from the dataset of the FNIH Biomarker Consortium Project within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). 565 participants randomly divided into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. The training cohort consisted of 395 participants and included 202 cases. The validation cohort consisted of 170 participants and included 87 cases. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used for feature selection. Support vector machine (SVM) was used to establish radiomics models and clinical and biomarker models for predicting the radiographic progression of OA. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC).The baseline, 24 M, Delta, and two combination radiomics models (Baseline and Delta, 24 M and Delta) all showed good predictive performance in the training and validation cohorts, with the combination model exhibiting the best performance. In the training cohort, the AUCs were 0.851 (95% CI: 0.812-0.890), 0.825 (95% CI: 0.784-0.865), 0.804 (95% CI: 0.761-0.847), 0.892 (95% CI: 0.860-0.924) and 0.884 (95% CI: 0.851-0.917), respectively. The AUCs in the validation cohort were 0.741 (95% CI: 0.667-0.814), 0.786 (95% CI: 0.716-0.856), 0.745 (95% CI: 0.671-0.819), 0.781 (95% CI: 0.711-0.851) and 0.802 (95% CI: 0.736-0.869), respectively. As compared, the clinical and biomarker models have AUC < 0.74. The DeLong test showed that the predictive performance of the radiomics models in the training and validation cohorts was significantly better than that of the clinical and biomarker models (P < 0.001).The MRI-based radiomics models of the patella all showed good predictive performance performed better than the clinical and biomarker models in predicting the radiographic progression of OA. Delta radiomics can improve the predictive performance of the single time model, the combined model of 24 M and Delta provided the best predictive performance.