Great Power Competition in Small States: The Case of Turkmenistan

Abstract: Turkmenistan, as a hapless policy-taker, permeates many conventional analyses of the Central Asian states. In this article, I argue, however, that the ability of the Turkmen ruling elite to renegotiate the terms of engagement with regional hegemons has a significant but often under-appreciated part of the narrative about small–great power relations in Central Asia. The analysis reveals that Turkmenistan has the political will and material capability to leverage advantageous domestic and external conditions to engage in selective hedging behavior against great powers. The article contributes to the literature on small states' hedging strategy by applying it to the case of Turkmenistan's foreign policy behavior in the environment of uncertainty posed by the great powers' competing interests and hegemonic ambitions.