Economic Feasibility Analysis of Oil Industry Chain with CCUS Technology

In the short term, the petrochemical industry remains highly energy- and carbon-intensive, and the widespread adoption of CCUS(Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage) is severely limited by the prohibitive cost of implementing CCUS technology and the inherent uncertainties. Thus, in the context of the pursuit of carbon neutrality, it is essential to examine the entire CCUS process in oil industry chain to provide pragmatic insights as a guide for professionals, investors, and decision makers. Therefore, the authors propose an integrated system dynamics model related to the entire process of oil industry chain introducing CCUS technology and establish a simulation model combining subsidy and carbon tax scenarios to analyze the dynamic trends of the long-term economic feasibility of oil industry chain introducing CCUS technology. The results show that excessive increase or reduction of subsidies and carbon tax incentives will affect the change of CO₂ emission reduction rate and profits. When subsidies and carbon taxes are reduced by 25% in the baseline scenario, the oil industry chain will be more beneficial. Governments and enterprises should set incentives appropriately to ensure that the appropriate balance between economic viability and environmental sustainability is found.