维西姆
微模拟
交通模拟
交通冲突
校准
领域(数学)
计量经济学
撞车
极值理论
交叉口(航空)
过程(计算)
计算机科学
帕累托原理
工程类
模拟
运输工程
数学优化
统计
数学
交通拥挤
操作系统
浮动车数据
程序设计语言
纯数学
作者
Yanyong Guo,Tarek Sayed,Lai Zheng,Mohamed Essa
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.simpat.2020.102172
摘要
There is an increasing interest in using microsimulation models for traffic safety evaluations and several calibration procedures were proposed for the simulation models to obtain a high correlation between the simulated and field-measured conflicts. However, since the ultimate goal of safety studies is to reduce crashes, the simulation model needs to be calibrated to ensure an accurate prediction of crashes. The objective of this study is to propose an innovative calibration approach for microsimulation models using the extreme value theory (EVT) approach. The EVT approach was shown to connect non-crash events to crashes, providing reasonable crash estimates from traffic conflicts. The goal of the proposed calibration process is to produce an extreme value distribution of simulated conflicts that matches the one of field-measured conflicts. A Genetic algorithm is utilized to obtain VISSIM model parameters that can achieve this goal. Traffic video data collected from two approaches at a signalized intersection in Surrey, Canada were used as case studies. Automated traffic conflicts analysis techniques were used to extract field-measured conflicts. Simulated conflicts were extracted from vehicle trajectories from VISSIM using the surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM) tool. EVT models were developed to estimate the generalized Pareto (GP) distributions of both field-measured conflicts and simulated conflicts of different scenarios. The calibration results show considerable matching of the estimated GP distributions between simulated conflicts and field-measured conflicts. As such, the proposed calibration procedure for microsimulation model is recommended as a promising approach in simulation-based safety evaluation of signalized intersections.
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