The policy outcomes of low-carbon city construction on urban green development: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment conducted in China

The low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy aims to implement a scientific model for low-carbon economic development, which not only completes carbon reduction targets on time, but is also of great significance for achieving economic transformation that is environmentally friendly. The difference in difference (DID) model is employed to identify the effects of China’s LCCP policy implemented in 2012 on a city’s green total factor productivity (GTFP) and explain their transmission mechanism. Our results suggest that the LCCP policy has indeed exerted a significantly positive effect on GTFP of pilot cities, and the impacts of the policy increase over time. Compared with non-pilot cities, the LCCP policy improves the GTFP of pilot cities through the effects of technological innovation, industrial structure, resource allocation, energy intensity and carbon sequestration. This policy exerts a more significant influence on the large, non-resource-based and eastern cities than the small and medium-sized, resource-based, central and western cities. This study provides empirical support for policymakers seeking to further spread LCCP policy nationwide.